SoftBank's decision to exit Nvidia entirely might look like a red flag. But don't mistake this $5.83 billion move for a crisis of confidence in AI—it's actually the opposite.​

On Tuesday, the Japanese investment giant announced it sold all 32.1 million Nvidia shares in October, alongside a partial $9.17 billion divestment from T-Mobile. The proceeds aren't going under the mattress. Instead, CEO Masayoshi Son is redirecting every dollar toward what he's calling an "all in" bet on OpenAI, including a $22.5 billion commitment and participation in the ambitious $500 billion Stargate data center initiative.​

A Pattern of Bad Timing

This isn't SoftBank's first Nvidia exit. The firm famously sold its entire $3.6 billion stake in 2019—just before the AI explosion that would have turned those shares into more than $150 billion today. As J Muse, senior managing director at Cantor Fitzgerald, noted: "When it comes to timing, it's hard to say that Masayoshi Son has excelled in trading Nvidia shares. This seems more like a matter of resource allocation—raising funds to invest in other ventures".​

SoftBank's CFO Yoshimitsu Goto confirmed that doubts about Nvidia's future didn't drive the sale, but that the sheer scale of capital required for OpenAI and other AI infrastructure projects did. Rolf Bulk, an equity research analyst at New Street Research, emphasized: "This should not be interpreted as a cautious or negative viewpoint on Nvidia. Instead, it reflects SoftBank's need for at least $30.5 billion in capital for investments."​

The Bigger Picture

The timing stirred anxiety on Wall Street, particularly as questions mount about whether $1 trillion in projected AI spending will deliver proportional returns. Nvidia stock dipped 2% following the announcement. Yet SoftBank maintains deep business ties with Nvidia through multiple AI projects using its technology.​

At approximately $181.58 per share, SoftBank exited just 14% below Nvidia's all-time high of $212.19—hardly a distress sale. Dan Baker from Morningstar doesn't see this as a strategic pivot: "[SoftBank] made it clear that this wasn't a reflection of their opinion on Nvidia... Ultimately, they are reallocating the funds to invest in other AI-related enterprises".​

SoftBank's exit reveals less about Nvidia's prospects than it does about Son's capital-intensive vision for shaping AI's infrastructure layer—even if his track record suggests better returns might have come from simply holding tight.​