Avatar: Fire and Ash continues to dominate the global box office four weeks into its theatrical run, reaching $1.23 billion worldwide and securing its fourth consecutive weekend at number one. The film added $21.3 million domestically and $65.6 million internationally over the January 9-11 weekend, bringing its cumulative totals to $342.6 million in North America and $888 million overseas. While these numbers confirm Fire and Ash as a genuine blockbuster success, the trajectory now places it firmly behind Avatar: The Way of Water's record-breaking pace—and industry analysts are closely watching whether it can sustain the long-term legs necessary to reach $2 billion.​

Fourth Weekend Performance Shows Solid Holds

Over its fourth weekend, Fire and Ash demonstrated the kind of resilience that has become synonymous with Cameron's Pandora franchise, declining only 48% from its third frame, despite playing in 100 fewer theaters (down from 3,835 to 3,700). The domestic weekend breakdown shows $5.1 million on Friday, $9.8 million on Saturday, and $6.4 million on Sunday—respectable numbers for a film in its fourth week, though noticeably softer than The Way of Water's performance at the same stage.​

Weekday grosses paint a more concerning picture of momentum loss. Monday through Thursday of the film's fourth week saw daily totals drop to $3.66 million, $4.53 million, $2.89 million, and $2.54 million, respectively—representing steep declines of 67%, 68%, 65%, and 84% compared to the same weekdays in its third week. These weekday drops suggest that while Fire and Ash maintains strong weekend appeal, it's struggling to sustain the kind of continuous audience turnout that powered both previous Avatar films to $2 billion+.​

Internationally, the film continues to perform exceptionally well, with $888 million in overseas revenue now accounting for 72% of its global total. China remains the top market with $138 million, followed by France at $81 million, Germany at $64 million, and South Korea at $44 million. This international dominance mirrors the pattern established by both previous Avatar films, which have consistently earned the majority of their revenue outside North America.​

The Way of Water Comparison: A Growing Gap

At the same point in its theatrical run, Avatar: The Way of Water had accumulated $1.713 billion worldwide—a staggering $482 million more than Fire and Ash's current total. That gap represents a significant challenge for Cameron's latest installment, which would need to dramatically outperform The Way of Water's remaining run to catch up.​

The original 2009 Avatar had earned $1.335 billion at this stage, meaning Fire and Ash is actually tracking 8% ahead of the first film's pace—but that comparison comes with important context. The 2009 original famously opened small and built momentum over months through unprecedented word of mouth, eventually reaching $2.92 billion. Fire and Ash, by contrast, opened much bigger but is showing steeper week-to-week declines, suggesting a more front-loaded box office pattern.​

Reddit's r/boxoffice community has been actively tracking these comparisons, with users projecting a final worldwide total between $1.55 billion and $1.7 billion for Fire and Ash—well short of The Way of Water's $2.32 billion final gross, but still comfortably profitable given the film's estimated $350-400 million production budget.​

The key question now isn't whether the franchise continues, but rather what lessons Cameron takes forward. Some observers argue that "the focus should be on streamlining production and effectively telling their story within the constraints of time and resources," suggesting that not every Avatar film needs to break $2 billion to justify its existence.​

As Fire and Ash enters its fifth week, it remains the uncontested box office champion with no major competition on the horizon until late January. Whether it can defy the odds and achieve the prolonged theatrical run necessary to join the $2 billion club remains uncertain—but for now, Pandora continues to prove itself one of cinema's most reliable commercial destinations.​

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