Avatar: Fire and Ash just wrapped its second weekend at the box office, and the numbers tell a story both encouraging and complicated for James Cameron and Disney. After a massive $347 million global opening weekend, the third installment in the blockbuster Pandora saga has now crossed $760 million worldwide, cementing its status as one of 2025's biggest hits while raising new questions about whether it can match the historic legs of its predecessors.
Second Weekend Performance and Holiday Boost
Over the extended Christmas weekend (December 25-28), Fire and Ash added approximately $88 million across North American screens, surpassing industry projections of $75 million by a solid $13 million. The film's four-day domestic cume now stands at roughly $217.7 million, while its international total has climbed to $542.7 million—bringing the worldwide gross to $760.4 million after just 14 days in release.
Awe-inspiring was the film's Christmas Day performance, which saw Fire and Ash pull in $24 million domestically on Thursday alone, marking a 124% surge from Wednesday's $10.7 million. This kind of holiday spike is exactly what Cameron's films are designed to capitalize on, benefiting from the lucrative corridor where daily grosses often rival full weekend numbers.
China remains the most significant international market for the film, with nearly $100 million earned, followed by strong performances in France ($54 million) and Germany ($43 million). In South Korea, Fire and Ash surpassed 4 million viewers faster than any previous Avatar film, maintaining the number one spot for 11 consecutive days with audience satisfaction scores ranging from 9.1 to 9.5 across major theater chains.
The $2 Billion Question: Can It Leg Out?
While $760 million in two weeks is undeniably strong, Fire and Ash is running behind Avatar: The Way of Water, which ultimately reached $2.3 billion worldwide and became the third-highest-grossing film of all time. The question now facing analysts and fans alike: does Fire and Ash have the marathon endurance to reach the coveted $2 billion club?
Industry observers note that the film has earned a "legs" multiplier of 2.44 so far—meaning it will finish with roughly 2.44 times its opening weekend domestically if current trends continue. While solid, this is lower than the exceptional holds both previous Avatar films achieved during their theatrical runs. The original Avatar (2009) started with a modest $77 million opening and stayed number one for seven consecutive weeks, thanks to incredible word of mouth, becoming the highest-grossing film ever made.
Deadline reports that how well Fire and Ash holds in its third weekend will be critical in determining whether a path to $2 billion remains viable, or whether the film will settle for a still-impressive but more modest final total in the $1.5-1.8 billion range. Cameron himself has acknowledged the stakes, telling the press that the film needs to make "two metric f**k tons of money" to justify continuing with Avatar 4 and Avatar 5, admitting he's "absolutely" ready to walk away from the franchise if this installment underperforms.
Critical Reception and Audience Scores
Part of the ongoing discussion around Fire and Ash's box office trajectory centers on its critical reception, which has been more mixed than previous installments. Based on 88 reviews, the film currently holds a 68% score on Rotten Tomatoes, making it the lowest-rated Avatar movie to date. For comparison, The Way of Water scored 76%, while the 2009 original sits at 81%.
Critics have praised mainly the visual effects and technical achievements, but have expressed concerns about storytelling repetition and a lack of fresh additions to Pandora's mythology. Screen Rant notes that "many reviewers noted that Fire and Ash was too much of a retread of past movies," with some feeling it adds nothing genuinely new to the franchise's conflicts and lore.
However, audience scores tell a more optimistic story. Exit polls show the film earning high grades from general moviegoers, which is the primary indicator of the strong word of mouth needed to sustain a multi-month theatrical run. Theater chains in South Korea report satisfaction scores of 9.1-9.5, suggesting that, despite critical reservations, audiences are emotionally connecting with the Sully family's latest journey.
Competition and Context
Fire and Ash maintained its number one position over Christmas despite notable competition, including Josh Safdie's Marty Supreme, which broke A24's all-time opening day record with $10.8 million on Christmas Day and went on to earn $27 million over the extended weekend. The Timothée Chalamet-led ping-pong drama represents A24's second-biggest debut ever, yet still couldn't dethrone Cameron's sci-fi epic from the top spot.
The film has also become the 10th-highest-grossing movie of 2025, displacing Captain America: Brave New World, which had accumulated approximately $200 million. This achievement underscores Fire and Ash's commercial strength, even as it trails behind blockbusters like Zootopia 2, which claimed the year's biggest opening.
What Comes Next
With a reported production budget of $400 million, Fire and Ash needs exceptional longevity to turn the kind of profit that would greenlight Avatar 4 (dated for December 21, 2029) and Avatar 5 (scheduled for December 19, 2031). Cameron, now 71, would be approaching 80 by the time the entire saga concludes—making the financial performance of this installment genuinely existential for the franchise's future.
The following two weeks will be crucial if Fire and Ash can maintain a strong hold-through New Year's and into January—capitalizing on school breaks and the post-holiday moviegoing rush—the pathway to $2 billion remains mathematically possible, especially with continued overperformance in international markets. But if week-to-week drops steepen, Disney and Cameron may need to recalibrate expectations and reassess the scope of future installments.
For now, Avatar: Fire and Ash stands as a genuine blockbuster success story with an uncertain final act—much like the Sully family's own journey through Pandora's fire and ash.
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