Eighty-three percent of U.S. shoppers say they'll do most of their holiday shopping with retailers they already know and trust. Eighty percent say they'll check their favorite stores' offers before looking anywhere else. That's from Synchrony's latest consumer survey of 1,092 adults, released this week.
The money is there. The National Retail Federation forecasts holiday retail sales of $1.013 trillion for November and December, up 4.2% from last year. Adobe expects U.S. online holiday spending to reach a record $275.1 billion, up 6.7%.
But record spending doesn't mean open wallets for everyone. Most of that money is already earmarked for a short list of familiar names. For a small business, the question is whether you're on that list.
Cautious, Not Cutting Back
The mood is mixed. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 51.0 in early November from 48.0 in October, 24/7 Wall St. reported. October's reading was the second-lowest on record. About 57% of respondents said, unprompted, that high prices had hurt their living standards.
So shoppers are spending, but carefully. In Synchrony's data, 75% said they'll go out of their way to find the best price, up 9 points from last year. Forty-two percent are looking for financing that splits purchases into smaller payments, up 12 points. Adobe expects buy now, pay later to drive $21.3 billion in online holiday sales.
"Trust may get retailers the first look, but clear, differentiated value is what turns shopper interest into sales," says Darrell Owens, CEO of Synchrony's Lifestyle business.
That line sums up the season. Trust gets you considered. Value gets you chosen.
The Small-Business Opening
The data is good news for independents. Fifty-five percent of shoppers say they plan to support more local retailers and small businesses this year, up 5 points from 2025.
Small businesses also have an advantage the big chains struggle to match: an existing, personal relationship with their customers. A shopper who has bought from you before, talked to you in person, or follows you on social media already counts you as "a retailer they know." That's exactly the group 80% of shoppers say they'll check first.
The catch is that intent isn't a purchase. Synchrony's figures are plans, not receipts, and a shopper who means to "shop local" can still end up on a big marketplace at 11 p.m. with a coupon. Your job over the next three weeks is to make the trusted choice the easy one.
Rewards Are Doing Heavy Lifting
One of the clearest shifts in the survey is how much shoppers are relying on rewards. Sixty-six percent plan to use retailer rewards they've already earned, up 13 points. Forty percent would sign up for a store card that offers a discount on the first purchase, up 8 points.
That tells you what "value" means to cautious shoppers right now. It isn't always the lowest sticker price. It's the feeling of getting something back for staying loyal.
For a small business, that doesn't require a points app. A punch card, a thank-you discount for past customers, or a free add-on with a second purchase can do the same job.
Timing Matters
The calendar this year is tight. Thanksgiving falls on Nov. 26, so Black Friday is Nov. 27, Small Business Saturday is Nov. 28, and Cyber Monday is Nov. 30.
Adobe expects Cyber Monday to be the season's biggest online day, at $15.1 billion, with Black Friday close behind at $12.9 billion. Mobile is expected to account for 57.4% of online holiday sales. Adobe also projects traffic to retail sites from AI assistants to jump 130%, as more shoppers ask chatbots for gift ideas.
If your offers, product pages, and checkout aren't ready for a phone-first, comparison-shopping customer by the week of Thanksgiving, you'll be making the case to people who have already decided.
What This Means
Three weeks is enough time to turn existing goodwill into holiday sales. Focus on the customers who already know you.
- Email your past customers first. They're the people most likely to check you before anyone else. Send a clear, early offer before Thanksgiving week, with a reason to buy from you rather than a marketplace.
- Make value visible, not just low. Shoppers are price-hunting, but you won't win a discount match against big chains. Show what they get from you that they don't get elsewhere: gift wrapping, local pickup, personal recommendations, an easy return.
- Reward loyalty in a simple way. A thank-you code for returning customers, a gift with a second purchase or an early-access sale for your email list all work. Rewards are the value lever shoppers are leaning on most.
- Offer payment flexibility if you can. With 42% of shoppers looking to split payments, check whether your checkout already offers installments through your payment provider. Often it's a setting, not a project.
- Test your site on a phone this week. Load your top product, add it to the cart, and check out, all on mobile. Fix anything that takes more than a few taps.
- Plan around Nov. 28. Small Business Saturday is your day to claim the 55% who want to shop local. Promote it to your list a week ahead and give them a specific reason to show up.
The brands that win this season won't be the loudest. They'll be the ones customers already trust, making it easy to buy from them again.
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