The corporate world just experienced a seismic shock. CEO confidence plummeted by an unprecedented 26 points in Q2 2025, marking the largest quarterly decline in nearly 50 years of data collection. This isn't just another business metric – it's a warning signal that could impact every working American.

The Numbers Tell a Stark Story

The Conference Board's CEO Confidence measure crashed from 60 in Q1 to just 34 in Q2 – well below the 50-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism. To put this in perspective, confidence had reached a three-year high just months earlier, making this reversal even more dramatic.

What's driving this panic?

The ongoing trade war uncertainty has CEOs spooked. A staggering 82% of CEOs now say economic conditions are worse than six months ago, compared to just 11% who felt that way in Q1. Even more concerning, 64% expect things to worsen further in the next six months.

Real-World Impact on Workers

This confidence collapse isn't happening in a boardroom vacuum. CEOs are already pulling back on capital spending, with 26% planning to reduce expenditures over the next 12 months – double the previous quarter. The share planning wage increases of 3% or more dropped sharply from 71% to 58%.

As Conference Board senior economist Stephanie Guichard noted:

"All components of the Measure weakened into pessimism territory". 

The organization used the word "collapsed" multiple times to describe the dramatic sentiment shift.

While 83% of CEOs anticipate a recession within 12-18 months, there's a silver lining: those surveyed after May 12 showed slightly less pessimism about the future, suggesting some stabilisation may be possible.